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Showing posts with label Trading Psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trading Psychology. Show all posts

Overcoming Market Panic

September 13, 2007

By Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.

When I was a beginning trader, I naively believed that a 100-share trade was no different from a 10,000 share one, since both could be executed with the same entries, exits, and money management. What I failed to appreciate is that the risk of any trade or investment affects our ability to evaluate it calmly, rationally, and objectively. A head of a brokerage firm, which offered free simulated trading to new traders, once told me that 80% of the traders made money in the (very realistic) simulations, but only 20% were successful once they traded real money. The difference, he observed, was the emotional impact of having actual money on the line.

In this same vein, a reader asks the Doc:

When I was younger and fitter I played soccer. My skills were okay, but I tended to panic when I possessed the ball and heard the opposition hurtling towards me.

Unfortunately I've carried this kink in my think over into my share trading.

I love trading. I've been learning and applying in earnest for the past year and have managed to overcome several barriers. However, three times I have panicked during a broad market sell off and sold out as I watched my paper profits disappear.

The latest example was yesterday. I'd struck a purple patch recently and the paper profits were looking very healthy. However, my positions began retracing without hitting my stops and those paper profits disappeared like sand slipping through my fingers.

When the market dropped yesterday, I found this too much to handle and I sold out at just above break even!

I know I won't be a good trader until I learn a few strategies to conquer this these panic attacks.

I have a few observations and suggestions for our earnest and motivated trader. But first, let me ask you—the reader—to review what he wrote and identify what you think is the most important thing he said. One way of doing that is to figure out what you would first ask him if you were counseling him directly. Would you inquire about:
  • The soccer experience
  • His emotional reaction to sell-offs
  • Yesterday’s market incident
  • His desire to be a good trader
  • Or something else?
My first question to our trader would be “something else”. I would say to him, “That’s interesting; you say you’ve managed to overcome several barriers. Could you tell me about those barriers and how you overcame them?”

Why would I ask this? Simple: Whatever he did to overcome his earlier barriers may hold the kernel of a solution for his current dilemma. Those solutions reflect the genuine and unique strengths of each individual. Instead of focusing on the problem and unwittingly reinforcing the notion that he is the problem—Note how easily he jumps from the issue of handling sell-offs to the larger, personalized problem of “I know I won’t be a good trader”—it makes sense to apply his known strengths to the challenge at hand. This reinforces the important message that even very good traders face huge hurdles to success.

This approach is known as solution-focused brief therapy, and it is particularly effective as a change strategy for those of us facing normal life dilemmas. Let’s say you come to me with a trading issue and I find out that you recently worked out a marital problem. You and your spouse learned to be better listeners by not taking disagreements personally and, instead, using them to identify each other’s needs and desires. Right away, we might then take a look at how you’ve been able to listen to your spouse and how you became able to not take differences personally. Perhaps this same strategy could work when it comes to listening to the market and not allowing your self-esteem to ride the market’s ups and downs!

The working assumption of the solution-focused therapist is that somewhere, at some time, each of us has successfully dealt with situations that are similar to the present dilemma. Depressed people aren’t always depressed, so how about finding out what they’re doing when they’re feeling better about themselves? Couples with problems don’t always argue; what are they doing right when they’re getting along? And our trader is not always panicking in the market, even when markets don’t always move his way. It would be worth identifying what he’s doing during those times: the kernels of solutions are often hidden in exceptions to problem patterns.

As it happens, I faced a dilemma much like our trader’s early in my trading career. I became panicky whenever I increased my size, as even normal movements against my position felt too risky. I overcame that problem when I examined how I handled risk in other areas of my life. For example, whenever I tackled a new project as a psychologist, such as writing a journal article, I always made sure that there was a guaranteed home for the article before I had finished it. I did this by consulting with editors ahead of the writing. My logic was that, by securing my publication, I could free myself to focus on the process of writing.

Similarly with trading, I learned to take guaranteed profits when positions went my way. Once a trade moved in my favor by the amount I was willing to risk on the trade, I immediately created a trailing stop on the position that guaranteed a profit. As a result, a winning trade could never become a loser. As the position moved in my favor, the stop moved with it, locking in an increasing profit. The security of knowing, “This trade will be a winner, no matter what” provided the reassurance I needed to counteract fears of risk. In my work with high frequency traders, I’ve used the same rationale to create trailing stops on daily profit/loss, so that, once the trader is up by a certain amount of money during the day, the stop point for the trading session is moved to a level of assured profitability.

My solution may not be yours; the beauty of solution-focused counseling is that it allows each person to craft solutions based on their experience—not the abstract advice of a guru. If you can identify the occasions when you’re already a good trader, the chances are good that an analysis of those occasions will start you on the road toward solving the next market challenge.





Trader Self-Evaluation

What are seven key psychological areas that you need to work on or are currently working on?

Don’t say “none” because that answer really suggests that you are totally unaware of what is going on with you.

We basically live in a society in which we are programmed to feel separate and alone from everyone else, programmed to follow the rules of the games that others invent for us to play. The net result is most people do the exact opposite of what is necessary for success. As you become aware of this, you’ll also become aware of all your patterns, beliefs, and emotions that you need to work on or clear out to become more successful as a trader.

Here are some examples that might fit some of you:
  • I really have a fear problem that enters into my trading. I want to make trades but I’m afraid to pull the trigger. And that fear seems to come up in other areas too; I guess I’m really afraid of failure.

  • I have some internal conflict when it comes to working on myself. On one hand I want to, but on the other hand, I’d rather do other things. Working on myself feels like having a tooth pulled. For some reason, I just don’t want to do it.

  • I don’t have any discipline. Sometimes I just decide to trade. I make almost random trades or take recommendations that I’ve been given, but just certain select ones appeal to me. And the net result is that those trades never seem to work out. (Note: this is also an incomplete answer. What is the selection process? What happens to those trades? Do you cut losses and let profits run? Are you compelled by some emotion to trade?)

  • My mother continually criticizes me. My mother gave me everything when I was growing up, and I’m very grateful to her. But she’s always telling me what I do wrong. In fact, it upsets me to be around her. Yet at the same time, I feel that I must support her. I need to find out why her criticism bothers me so much and what I can do about it.

  • I really don’t like to be alone. When I do all of things that are important to trading success, like psychological work, I have to go inside and search and that really disturbs me. Also when I try to meditate, things come up that cause me to be afraid. (And, of course, if you had this response, I’d want you to at least find out what’s trying to come up that is causing this).
Those five statements are just examples of what might come up for you. But whatever you find…look thoroughly. What’s really going on? What are the emotions you don’t want to feel? What are the hidden beliefs? What is the internal conflict where part of you wants certain things and another part wants something else?


What are your key beliefs about the markets?

It is important for you to remember that you can only trade your beliefs about the market. So what are the key beliefs that are guiding you?

To really understand what’s guiding your trading, you should list at least fifty beliefs. However, at least ten is a good starting point.

To help you get started, I’ve listed twelve of my most important beliefs about the market. Some of these are core principles that I teach everyone and some of them are just things that fit me. Also I just came up with these twelve off the top of my head. Like I mentioned, you’ll probably need to discover at least fifty beliefs to thoroughly cover the key principles that guide your trading.
  1. Cut your losses short and let your profits run!

  2. Risk, as it relates to how much you can lose in a trade, is much more important than risk as it related to how much volatility you can have. Both are related though.

  3. You must understand the R-multiple distribution of your trading system and the average R it produces (expectancy) and the variability of that distribution (i.e., how volatile it is).

  4. You must know the objectives you wish to accomplish. What would you like to accomplish and what can you tolerate in terms of drawdowns? In my case, I’d like to make 10% per month in my trading.

  5. To achieve your objectives, you must understand and use position sizing to your advantage.

  6. Fill your portfolio with a core position that you might adjust weekly or monthly. However, then find efficient stocks and use leverage with those stocks to achieve peak performance. (Again, remember that these are my beliefs and they might not fit you.)

  7. When I have a large down day, thoroughly investigate what happened and how I might have caused it or made any mistakes.

  8. Keep a trading diary on every trade.

  9. Follow the ten tasks of trading.

  10. When I cannot be actively trading, remove all speculative positions.

  11. Understand the risk reward of each trade before you enter it. For example, your potential reward should be at least three times your potential risk.

  12. Keep stop loss levels with my core positions and actively monitor the market for my speculative positions. (Again, this one is my personal preference.)

I want to caution you again that these 12 beliefs are my personal beliefs. Your beliefs might be different. However, certain beliefs are universal for good trading. These include beliefs 1- 4 (knowing your objectives), and 8-11. These are just ideas to get you going.

So be honest with yourself, and start to look at what you truly believe about the markets. You may surprise yourself.





 
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